银行存款利率，或将下调？

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of declining deposit rates, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, is expected to lead to a nationwide reduction in deposit rates, influenced by central bank policies aimed at stimulating economic growth [2][4][6]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Changes - Small and medium-sized banks have led the recent reduction in deposit rates, with some banks reducing rates by up to 80 basis points [2]. - For instance, the Tongyu County Mengyin Village Bank has not only lowered rates for 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year deposits but has also eliminated 5-year fixed deposits [3]. - The current reductions in deposit rates are characterized as a decentralized approach among small and medium-sized banks, rather than a comprehensive reduction led by major state-owned banks [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - The central bank is expected to lower interest rates further to achieve the 2026 economic growth target, with a potential LPR (Loan Prime Rate) cut anticipated in January [6]. - The central bank's third-quarter report emphasized the need to strengthen interest rate policy execution and supervision to lower banks' funding costs and promote a decrease in overall financing costs [7]. Group 3: Implications of Lower Deposit Rates - Lower deposit rates are significant not only for reducing banks' funding costs but also for guiding savings into the market [8]. - As deposit rates decline, some funds are likely to shift from low-yield deposits to equity markets, such as stocks [9]. - The government's unprecedented support for the stock market, including the approval of the first batch of seven AI-themed ETFs, indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing the market and promoting technology stocks as key investment assets [10]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The emergence of more ETFs suggests a shift in residents' investment preferences from individual stocks to ETFs, indicating a broader trend in investment behavior [11]. - Currently, the 1-year deposit rate for major state-owned banks has fallen to 0.95%, with the 2-year rate at 1.05%, and further declines are expected [11]. - The dual entry of both resident and institutional funds into the market signifies a significant change in investment patterns, moving away from traditional bank deposits and real estate towards index funds and equity markets [12].