一周内多位美联储官员“放鸽”，下月降息概率大幅上升

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has significantly reversed, driven by comments from multiple Fed officials supporting a rate cut due to a weakening labor market and declining consumer confidence [1][2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - At least four Federal Reserve officials have publicly expressed support for a rate cut in December, indicating a shift towards a more dovish stance within the Fed [2][4]. - Fed Governor Stephen Milan stated that the rising unemployment rate is a result of overly tight monetary policy and emphasized the need to lower rates to neutral levels [2]. - New York Fed President John Williams noted that there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed mixed results, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, the highest level since November 2021 [4][5]. - The consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in November, down 6.8 points from October, marking a seven-month low [5]. - Retail sales in September grew by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, and below expectations [5]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 84.7%, an increase of 45.6 percentage points from the previous week [4]. - Analysts suggest that if the market maintains a rate cut probability above 70%, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may align with the rate curve and support a December cut [5]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in both December and January [5][6]. Group 4: Internal Divisions within the Federal Reserve - Despite the growing dovish sentiment, there remains significant internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some regional Fed presidents expressing concerns about persistent inflation [7]. - The core conflict within the Fed revolves around the inability to bring inflation down to target levels while also observing signs of labor market weakness [7]. - Analysts indicate that the Fed is facing its most severe internal divisions in nearly 30 years, complicating its decision-making process [7].