美联储降息+AI需求双轮驱动，有色矿业再度爆发！

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing strong performance, driven by robust demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions, with significant price increases expected for various metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest closing date, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 68.86%, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [4]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous metal mining index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 78.50%, indicating better relative elasticity [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Growth - The non-ferrous metal industry reported a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% for the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [4][5]. - The profitability metrics for the non-ferrous mining index indicate a net profit growth of 49.48% for the first three quarters and 55.62% for the third quarter, with an average ROE of 12.14% [5]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metal mining index stands at 22.99 times PE-TTM, which is at the 37% historical percentile, reflecting a 24% expansion in valuation this year, primarily driven by profit growth rather than valuation expansion [5]. - The index covers various sub-sectors including industrial metals, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, providing a diversified investment approach that mitigates price volatility risks [8]. Group 4: Future Demand Drivers - The demand for copper in the new energy sector is expected to be supported by the development of wind and solar power, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure, amidst a global energy structure adjustment [3]. - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" and increased gold holdings by certain countries is anticipated to sustain demand for precious metals, further accelerated by the liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3]. - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from stable traditional demand and emerging new demands from robotics and low-altitude economies, with domestic supply controls enhancing the industry's global position [3].