Roche(US:RHHBY) 3 6 Ke·2025-11-28 03:45Core Insights - The flu medication market is undergoing a significant transformation, with Oseltamivir losing popularity and Marboxilavir rapidly gaining traction as a preferred treatment option [2][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oseltamivir, once the dominant flu treatment since its introduction in 1999, is experiencing a decline in market interest, with sales dropping significantly from over 6.5 billion yuan in 2019 to approximately 206.8 million yuan in 2020, a decrease of 65.1% [5][7]. - In contrast, Marboxilavir, which was approved in Japan in 2018 and in China in 2021, is witnessing a surge in demand, with sales reaching 510 million yuan in 2024 and capturing 10.8% of the market share [9][11]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the flu medication market is intensifying, with over 120 companies producing flu medications in China, including more than 70 competitors for Oseltamivir alone [8][16]. - New entrants like Marboxilavir are disrupting the market dynamics, leading to a potential dual dominance scenario alongside Oseltamivir, while other new drugs like Baloxavir and Mavrilavir are also emerging [16][17]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - Marboxilavir's unique advantage of requiring only a single dose for treatment enhances patient compliance, making it particularly appealing for busy individuals and parents managing children's medication [11][12]. - Clinical studies indicate that Marboxilavir offers faster symptom relief compared to Oseltamivir, with an average symptom alleviation time of 53.7 hours versus longer durations for Oseltamivir [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in market preference from Oseltamivir to Marboxilavir is expected to drive further research and development in the flu medication sector, fostering innovation and the introduction of more effective and safer treatments [18]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance their core competencies, optimize production processes, and leverage technologies like AI and big data to improve drug development and market strategies [17][18].