东京核心通胀超预期，日本离加息再近一步

Core Inflation and Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year in November, slightly above the market expectation of 2.7%, primarily driven by rising electricity prices, offsetting the slowdown in processed food price increases [1] - The industrial output in October unexpectedly increased by 1.4%, mainly due to strong automobile production, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6% in October, with a job-to-applicant ratio of 1.18, indicating a tight labor market [2] Inflation Drivers - The overall inflation in Tokyo remains sticky, largely driven by food costs, with rice prices soaring by 38.5%, and coffee beans and chocolate prices increasing by 63.4% and 32.5% respectively [2] - The number of price-increased items from major food companies in Japan is expected to reach 20,609 this year, a 64.6% increase from the previous year, indicating companies are passing on rising costs to consumers [2] Manufacturing Outlook - Despite the positive industrial output data, manufacturers expect a decline in production by 1.2% and 2.0% in November and December respectively, suggesting potential external demand shocks in the coming months [3] Interest Rate Hike Speculation - The recent economic data may bolster the Bank of Japan's confidence in the economic outlook, fueling speculation of a possible interest rate hike as early as December [4] - Analysts believe the window for an interest rate hike is approaching, with expectations of a tightening cycle resuming in the coming months [5] Yen's Role in Policy Decisions - The ongoing weakness of the yen is a critical variable influencing the policy shift, with warnings from Bank of Japan officials about the risks of delaying rate hikes [6] - The Japanese government has introduced a fiscal stimulus plan to alleviate living costs, complicating the timing of the central bank's decisions [6]