东有阿里，西有谷歌，AI叙事重燃！美降息预期转强，港股科技由抑转扬！

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong technology sector has experienced adjustments due to differing expectations regarding interest rate cuts and concerns over an AI bubble, but is now rebounding thanks to stronger expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and renewed interest in AI narratives [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts has strengthened, with market confidence rising from a 30% probability to over 80% following comments from Fed officials expressing concerns about the labor market [1][3]. - Historical data shows that after the initiation of preventive rate cuts, the probability of the Hong Kong stock market rising is 75% within three months and 100% within six months [3][4]. Group 2: AI Narrative and Market Response - The AI narrative has been revitalized with the launch of Google's Gemini 3.0 and the popularity of Alibaba's Qianwen app, leading to a reassessment of the Hong Kong technology sector [5][6]. - Tencent's third-quarter report indicated a 21% year-on-year increase in marketing service revenue, with AI-driven advertising technology contributing significantly to this growth [6]. Group 3: Capital Inflows and Valuation - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, with southbound capital expected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan next year, driven by the attractiveness of quality technology stocks [7][11]. - The valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is currently at a low point compared to global peers, with the Hang Seng Technology Index trading at a PE ratio of 22.37, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500 and other major indices [12]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, focusing on high-quality domestic hardware and aligning with the current technology market trends [14].