美债遭大规模抛售，美联储将做出最后一个决定，中美是否能回到过去？

Group 1: U.S. National Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion as of November 2025, with annual interest payments nearing $1.5 trillion, exceeding the GDP of many medium-sized countries [1] - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise to 143% by 2030, significantly higher than 122% in 2024 [5] - The U.S. government is expected to allocate 26.5% of its fiscal revenue to interest payments in the fiscal year 2025, meaning over $1 out of every $4 in tax revenue will go towards interest [5] Group 2: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds to $700.5 billion, the lowest level since 2008, having sold off nearly $300 billion since 2022 [2] - The structure of U.S. debt ownership is changing, with foreign investors' share dropping from around 50% in 2015 to approximately 30% currently, while domestic investors' share is increasing [17] - As of November 2025, Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at approximately $1.19 trillion, followed by the UK at about $865 billion, and China at $700.5 billion [21] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 10-year yield surpassing 5%, marking a nearly 20-year high [3] - A significant sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market occurred in early April 2025, with the 10-year yield increasing by 50 to 60 basis points in a short period [7] Group 4: Economic and Trade Relations - The U.S. and China maintain a high level of trade interdependence, with bilateral trade reaching $688.28 billion in 2024, making the U.S. China's largest goods export destination [13] - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate has become a focal point in U.S.-China economic competition, with a 15% depreciation in 2023 followed by a 5% appreciation in late 2024 [13] Group 5: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with core inflation remaining above 2.5%, while the volatility in the Treasury market necessitates intervention [11] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as political pressures from the Trump administration may lead to changes in leadership that could affect monetary policy [15] Group 6: Global Financial System Changes - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves fell to 55% in Q1 2025, the lowest since 1999, indicating a shift towards a "de-dollarization" trend [9] - The development of alternative payment systems, such as China's CIPS, and the increasing use of local currencies for trade settlements are contributing to the erosion of dollar dominance [23]