Ge Long Hui·2025-11-28 05:06Core Viewpoint - Anhui Expressway (AHE) is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating, targeting Rmb17.32 for A-shares and HK$15.12 for H-shares, indicating attractive dividend yields for 2025 and 2026 [1][7] Investment Positives - AHE's road assets are strategically located on key interprovincial routes, ensuring strong profitability and extended toll collection periods, with an average gross margin of 59.5% from 2014 to 2024 [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the acquisition of the Anhui section of the Fuzhou and Sixu Expressways and the completion of renovations on existing expressways, potentially increasing earnings [3] - AHE's dividend payout ratio is projected to be at least 60% for 2025-2027, with A-shares yielding 4.5% and H-shares yielding 5.4% for 2025, both among the highest in their respective sectors [4][7] Financials and Valuation - Expected EPS for AHE is Rmb1.15 in 2025 and Rmb1.27 in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 14.0% from 2024 to 2026, justifying a valuation premium due to high-quality assets and growth potential [6] - Target price for A-shares is set at Rmb17.32 based on a 4% dividend yield, implying a P/E of 15.0x for 2025 and 13.6x for 2026, with an upside of 12.0% [6] - Target price for H-shares is set at HK$15.12 based on a 5% dividend yield, implying a P/E of 12.0x for 2025 and 10.8x for 2026, with an upside of 8.0% [7] Market Differentiation - While the market expresses concerns regarding AHE's debt-to-asset ratio and cash flow, the company anticipates increased vehicle traffic on renovated roads and has solid financing options [5]