知乎-W(02390.HK):全年盈利在望 社区AI渗透率持续提升
Ge Long Hui·2025-11-28 05:30

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 659 million yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 22%, which aligns with expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net loss was 21 million yuan, better than the anticipated loss of 55 million yuan, attributed to lower-than-expected sales and R&D expenses [1] - The CFO indicated that the current market value is significantly below cash assets, which amounted to 4.58 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025, and the company plans to continue share buybacks [1] Business Development Trends - The company is focused on optimizing its platform business and balancing commercialization with community ecology [1] - Marketing business revenue decreased by 26% to 189 million yuan in Q3 2025, but the decline rate improved from 35% in Q2 2025, suggesting effective adjustments that may lead to growth next year [1] - Paid membership revenue reached 386 million yuan, with a notable increase in daily active user engagement, achieving double-digit year-on-year growth for six consecutive quarters [1] - IP copyright revenue saw a significant increase, with triple-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, driven by the accelerated development of the "Salt Story" IP into various media formats [1] - Other revenue declined by 35% to 83.9 million yuan, with a focus on optimizing ROI in vocational training [1] - The company is relatively confident in achieving Non-GAAP profitability in 2025 [1] AI Application and Collaboration Potential - The penetration rate of the Zhihu direct answer community increased to 15% in Q3, with AI search upgraded to an Agentic assistant [2] - Upcoming features include full user access to search results and enhanced AI search capabilities for community trends [2] - The introduction of AI Copilot tools aims to boost content creation frequency and community engagement, with over 20% usage rate by the end of Q3 2025 [2] - The combination of high-quality content, expert networks, and AI capabilities is expected to create a competitive advantage for Zhihu in the AI era [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 2% and 17% to 2.76 billion yuan and 2.48 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The Non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2026 has been reduced by 47% to 40.86 million yuan [2] - Current stock prices correspond to 0.8/0.9x and 0.9/0.9x P/S ratios for Hong Kong and US stocks for 2025/2026 [2] - The target price has been lowered by 11% and 13% to 14 HKD and 5.4 USD, respectively, with an upside potential of 34% for both markets [2]