Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-28 05:41Core Insights - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights that by 2026, the Robotaxi sector is expected to reach a commercialization turning point driven by policy support, technological advancements, and cost reductions [1][3] - The automotive industry in China is projected to experience stable volume and gradual price increases in 2025, with a dual drive from exports and new energy vehicles [1][2] Group 1: 2025 Overview - In 2025, the Chinese automotive industry is expected to achieve a pattern of "stable volume and gradual price increase," supported by the effective recovery of domestic demand due to vehicle replacement policies [1] - Both wholesale and retail sales are anticipated to grow year-on-year, with an increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles [1] - The industry is facing continued price wars, leading to further pressure on profitability, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth [1] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The exemption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax is expected to continue until the end of 2025, with a reduction to half in 2026-2027, potentially impacting sales significantly, especially for vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan [2] - Major automakers like Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, Geely, and JAC are entering a period of intensive new product launches, which may enhance their sales and market share [2] - The mainstream automakers' pure electric platforms are expected to be validated by 2025, with new models being launched at scale in 2026 [2] - The rollout of L3-level intelligent driving technology is imminent, becoming a key driver for new model launches in 2026 [2] Group 3: Emerging Business Opportunities - The Robotaxi sector is benefiting from policy support, technological progress, and cost reductions, leading to a commercial breakthrough, with major manufacturers and tech giants expanding their operations [3] - Low-speed unmanned logistics vehicles and mining trucks are moving towards scale due to policy support and economic advantages [3] - The integration of the intelligent automotive supply chain with the robotics industry is creating multiple advantages, including technological migration and resource consolidation [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading passenger vehicle manufacturers, the intelligent industry chain, and humanoid robotics industry, highlighting companies like Geely and Great Wall Motors as key players [3] - Beneficiary stocks include JAC Motors and Leap Motor in the passenger vehicle sector, and companies like SUTENG and Desay SV in the intelligent sector [3] - In the humanoid robotics sector, companies such as Top Group and Aikodi are identified as beneficiaries [3]