金沙中国(1928.HK)：新的推广策略开始见效；预计未来市场份额和EBITDA将能继续提升

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, with net revenue increasing by 7.3% year-on-year and 6.1% quarter-on-quarter, reaching $1.9 billion, recovering to 90% of 2019 levels [1] Financial Performance - VIP business revenue decreased by 16.3% year-on-year and 5.2% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 34% of 2019 levels [1] - Mass market business revenue increased by 12.1% year-on-year and 9.0% quarter-on-quarter, with high-end mass market up by 6.3% year-on-year and 10.8% quarter-on-quarter, and mass market up by 18.6% year-on-year and 7.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Retail business gross income and operating profit grew by 4.0% and 4.6% year-on-year, and 4.0% and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 6.2% quarter-on-quarter to $600 million, recovering to 80% of 2019 levels [1] - Net profit for the quarter grew by 1.5% year-on-year and 27.1% quarter-on-quarter to $270 million [1] Market Share and Cash Position - Market share for mass market and gaming machines rose to 25.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.4% [1] - The company holds approximately $1.13 billion in cash, with net debt reduced by $150 million to $5.79 billion [1] Venue Performance - Revenue from various venues includes: Venetian Macao at $692 million, Londoner at $686 million, Parisian at $218 million, Four Seasons Macao at $206 million, and Sands Macao at $72 million [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for these venues are $242 million, $219 million, $53 million, $102 million, and $8 million, respectively, recovering to 71%, 130%, 44%, 136%, and 15% of 2019 levels [1] Future Outlook - The company benefits from the full service launch of the second phase of the Londoner and new promotional strategies, leading to a recovery in market share [2] - Short-term EBITDA is expected to reach $2.7 to $2.8 billion, driven by the growth in the VIP segment due to the emergence of super VIP clients and increased market liquidity [2] - The company has resumed intermediary business, although profit margins remain low, with gaming revenue accounting for approximately 12-15% [2] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having repurchased $340 million in shares, increasing ownership to 74.76% [2] - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 25.11, supported by the positive outlook from the Londoner phase two and new promotional activities [2]