美联储降息预期升温，XBIT数据：SOL爆仓规模扩大至810万美元

Group 1: Solana ETF and Market Dynamics - The Solana ETF experienced its first net outflow, with a total of $8.1 million withdrawn, including $34 million from the 21Shares Solana ETF [1][5] - The outflow indicates a significant shift in institutional investment strategies towards Solana, contrasting with the inflow seen in other ETFs like XRP [5] - The SOL price has dropped below the $140 mark, triggering stop-loss orders among leveraged long positions, exacerbating selling pressure [5][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 86.9%, with a 13.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - This shift in monetary policy expectations is reshaping global capital market liquidity, leading to a mixed performance in Asian and global stock markets [3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hedge funds shorting it, poses a risk to cryptocurrencies, including Solana, as the negative correlation between the dollar and crypto assets has intensified [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of SOL - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for SOL, with MACD signaling a strong downward momentum and KDJ indicating overbought conditions [6][7] - Key price levels for SOL include support at $133 and resistance at $145, with significant trading activity noted between $128.86 and $143.99 [6] - If the support level at $133 is breached, the potential for further liquidation of long positions increases, with the next target being the stop-loss area at $128.22 [6][10] Group 4: Geopolitical and Macro Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia and the US, are contributing to market volatility and risk re-evaluation across various asset classes [9] - The current environment is characterized by a mix of macroeconomic risks, technical pressures, and expectations of monetary easing, leading to a conservative and short-term focus among investors [9][10] - The ongoing geopolitical developments will likely influence market behavior, particularly in the cryptocurrency sector, where volatility is expected to persist [10]