白银期货创新高，中国库存位于近十年低位

Core Viewpoint - Silver is becoming a new focus in the commodity market, with futures prices reaching new highs due to tightening supply signals [1][4]. Supply Concerns - The direct cause of the price increase is heightened market concerns over supply, with silver inventory on the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropping by 58.83 tons to 715.875 tons, the lowest since July 3, 2016 [4]. - Although there was a slight increase of 21.3 tons in inventory on November 25, it remains at a near ten-year low [4]. - China's silver exports surged to over 660 tons in October, marking a historical high, which is directly linked to the rapid consumption of domestic silver inventory [5][6]. Cross-Border Trade Dynamics - Due to concerns over tariffs affecting cross-border shipping costs, commodities like gold, silver, and copper have seen a phenomenon of "cross-border migration" arbitrage ahead of tax implementation [4][6]. - The price of New York commodities often exceeds that of London and other regions due to statistical tax premiums, creating arbitrage opportunities that prompt traders to transport goods to U.S. warehouses [6]. Macroeconomic Support - The entire precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [4][7]. - Fed officials' dovish comments have reinforced expectations for a rate cut, further supporting precious metal prices [7]. Industrial Metal Market - The theme of supply tightness is also emerging in the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a supply gap expanding to 316,000 tons next year [8]. - Demand for copper is driven by ongoing investments in data centers and power grids, while supply growth is hindered by production disruptions and declining ore grades [8].