“早苗经济学”难解日本经济困局

Core Viewpoint - The economic policy under Prime Minister Kishi's administration, termed "Sanae Economics," closely mirrors "Abenomics," focusing on aggressive fiscal measures and crisis management investments, despite the changing economic landscape in Japan [1][2][4] Group 1: Economic Measures - The Japanese government approved a comprehensive economic strategy with a spending scale of 21.3 trillion yen, significantly exceeding market expectations, with general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen [1] - The previous administration's budget for the 2024 fiscal year was only 13.9 trillion yen, indicating a substantial increase in the current year's supplementary budget [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Japan is currently experiencing inflation, with the core consumer price index (CPI) rising by 3.0% year-on-year in October, while real wages have declined for 28 consecutive months [2][3] - The yen has depreciated over 6% since Kishi took office, reaching a low of 157.9 yen per dollar, contributing to a decline in market confidence [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nikkei average has dropped from a peak of 50,000 points to 48,000 points, and long-term government bond yields have risen above 1.83%, reflecting a downturn in key economic indicators [3] - The aggressive fiscal policies proposed by Kishi's administration may exacerbate inflation, as they do not prioritize addressing high price levels [3][4] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The structural issues facing Japan, such as excessive national debt and inflation, could lead to increased fiscal and socio-economic pressures if Kishi continues to pursue outdated economic policies [4]