水晶剑，乔愚在剑南春的滑铁卢？

Core Viewpoint - During this year's Double Eleven shopping festival, the online prices of premium liquor brands, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, experienced significant drops, raising concerns in offline channels about market stability and pricing strategies [2][10]. Group 1: Price Dynamics and Market Reactions - The "Billion Subsidy" initiative on e-commerce platforms led to unprecedented price reductions for liquor, particularly affecting the well-known product "Crystal Sword" from Jian Nan Chun, which saw its price drop to 341 yuan per bottle on Pinduoduo, breaking the 350 yuan threshold [2][8]. - The online price of 350 yuan per bottle for "Crystal Sword" has disrupted the long-standing stability in pricing, distribution, and profitability, indicating a potential market "short-selling" signal [10][19]. - Jian Nan Chun's sales performance during Double Eleven remained strong, with its official Tmall store ranking first in liquor sales, and significant sales increases on platforms like Meituan [8][10]. Group 2: Sales Targets and Challenges - Jian Nan Chun's current sales target of 30 billion yuan by 2025, set by the new general manager Qiao Yu, is under scrutiny as the company reported only 16.94 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, with a mere 3.74% growth rate [12][13]. - Achieving the ambitious 30 billion yuan target would require a staggering 77.1% year-on-year growth, which appears increasingly unattainable given the current market conditions [13][15]. - The overall liquor industry is facing a slowdown, with over 90% of companies reporting declining performance, making it particularly challenging for Jian Nan Chun to achieve high growth [15]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape has expanded, with new entrants like Guojiao 1573 and others challenging Jian Nan Chun's market position, making it difficult for "Crystal Sword" to maintain its status as a leading product [17]. - The significant drop in online pricing and emerging sales volume signals for "Crystal Sword" suggest potential difficulties ahead for Jian Nan Chun, raising questions about how the company will navigate market fluctuations [17][19]. - The reliance on "Crystal Sword" as a key revenue driver poses risks for Jian Nan Chun, as any substantial decline in its market performance could lead to significant challenges for the new management under Qiao Yu [19].