金价坚守4170美元，降息预期下的“黄金时代”前奏

Core Viewpoint - The gold market remains resilient despite a 5% decline from its historical high, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which is a key factor for gold prices [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 28, gold is trading around $4,179 per ounce, maintaining a position near a two-week high despite a slight drop to $4,157.22 on the previous day [1]. - The market is currently experiencing low liquidity due to the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to cautious investor behavior as they assess signals from the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Key fundamental factors supporting gold prices include a slowdown in U.S. economic growth leading to lower interest rates, a weakening dollar, ongoing safe-haven demand, and strong central bank buying [3][4]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has exceeded 85%, contrasting with previous statements from Fed Chair Powell that did not guarantee a cut [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, with structural factors such as declining real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven demand expected to drive prices back to historical highs [4]. - Short-term price consolidation is anticipated within the $4,000 to $4,170 range, but a clear signal from the Fed regarding rate cuts could lead to a breakout [4][5]. - The year 2026 is projected to be a significant period for gold, with expectations of continued interest from investors and central banks [5].