Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-28 08:04Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Anhui Wantuo Expressway (600012) with an "Outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 15.12, indicating an 8% upside potential from the current price [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company's road assets are strategically located at provincial borders, facilitating significant passenger and freight transport demand due to the developed local automotive industry [1] - The core road assets have a high average gross margin of 59.5% from 2014 to 2024, with extended toll collection periods following upgrades and expansions [1] Group 2: Growth Prospects - Short-term growth is expected from the acquisition of the Anhui sections of Fuzhou-Zhou and Suxu Expressways, as well as the completion of the Xuanguang and Guangci expansions, contributing to profit increments [1] - The acquisition of a 7% stake in Shandong Expressway (600350) is projected to enhance investment income by approximately RMB 300 million in 2026 [1] - Long-term growth is supported by the expansion of the Gaijie Expressway and participation in new road construction projects, indicating sustained growth potential [1] Group 3: Dividend and Earnings Forecast - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with estimated dividend yields of 5.4% and 6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, positioning it among the top in H-share highways [1] - CICC forecasts the company's earnings to be RMB 1.97 billion and RMB 2.17 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - The average dividend yield for H-share highways is currently 5.9%, and given Wantuo's focus on highways and strong asset quality, a valuation premium is warranted, leading to a target price of HKD 15.12 for 2025, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 12x and 10.8x for 2025 and 2026, respectively [1]