日本批准18.3万亿日元补充预算，发债计划大幅向短债倾斜

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government has announced a significant bond issuance plan to fund a new economic stimulus package, raising concerns about fiscal discipline and market reactions to rising bond yields [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Plan - The Japanese cabinet approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen, with 11.7 trillion yen to be covered by new bond issuance [1]. - The government plans to increase the issuance of 2-year and 5-year government bonds by 300 billion yen each, and significantly raise the issuance of short-term treasury bills by 6.3 trillion yen [1][3]. - The total bond issuance for the fiscal year will reach 40.3 trillion yen, a decrease of approximately 4.3% from the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline have led to a rise in long-term bond yields to their highest levels in over two decades [4]. - The demand for 2-year government bonds was weak during the recent auction, with yields climbing to 0.97%, the highest since 2008 [1][5]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 3.53, lower than the previous auction and the 12-month average, indicating reduced investor demand [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The issuance strategy focuses on short-term debt to minimize market impact, as the demand for ultra-long-term bonds has been declining [3]. - The market is reacting to expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, with traders estimating a 57% chance of action in the coming month [5][7]. - Recent economic data, including stable inflation and unexpected increases in industrial output, are supporting the case for a rate hike [7].