非农持续萎靡之际 特朗普祭出“核弹级”移民限制! 试图封死第三世界劳动力闸门

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of a comprehensive immigration policy aimed at tightening immigration from "third world countries," which may further constrict the labor supply in the U.S. amid weakening non-farm employment data, potentially leading to a prolonged economic slowdown [1][5][7]. Immigration Policy - Trump announced a "permanent suspension" of immigration from all "third world countries" to restore the U.S. system, without specifying which countries are included [3][4]. - The policy includes terminating federal benefits and subsidies for non-citizens and expelling immigrants deemed a burden on public policy or incompatible with Western civilization [3][6]. - Following a shooting incident involving a National Guard member linked to an Afghan citizen, Trump intensified his stance on immigration, targeting unspecified "third world countries" and non-citizen federal benefits [2][4]. Labor Market Impact - The U.S. non-farm employment market is transitioning from "overheated" to a "slow and fragile" chronic recession, with only 119,000 jobs added in September, indicating a significant slowdown [5][7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, up from 4.1% a year ago, and average hourly wage growth has slowed to 3.8%, still above the 2% inflation target [5][6]. - Approximately 31 million immigrant workers are currently in the U.S., and large-scale deportations could threaten the labor market, particularly in agriculture, construction, and healthcare sectors [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The tightening of immigration policies may lower labor growth rates, increase wages and labor costs in certain industries, and reduce potential economic output [6][7]. - The Federal Reserve has acknowledged the softening job market through two interest rate cuts this year, while Trump's immigration policies may further restrict labor supply amidst already weakening employment conditions [6][7]. - The overall labor market is expected to resemble a "chronic recession," which could drag the U.S. economy into a prolonged period of slow or negative growth, complicating the Fed's policy stance between job preservation and inflation control [7].