浙商证券李超：大家要对牛市有信心，看好科技与红利

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Awards highlighted optimistic projections for China's economy and capital markets in 2026, led by Li Chao's team from Zheshang Securities, which won first place in macroeconomic analysis [1] - Li Chao introduced a four-level analytical framework that emphasizes high-quality development as the core anchor for economic growth, addressing key variables such as US-China relations, social stability, structural transformation, and economic growth [3] - The framework indicates that 2026 will focus on structural transformation under high-quality development, with exports providing essential support for economic growth despite trade friction [3] Group 2 - Li Chao predicts a bull market in 2026 driven by declining interest rates, a trend observed globally where liquidity boosts asset valuations even during economic downturns [4] - Previous declines in interest rates in China did not lead to a bull market due to suppressed market risk appetite, but confidence has been improving since 2025, paving the way for liquidity to flow into capital markets [5] - The current interest rate environment and the trend of confidence recovery in China create conditions for replicating the historical bull market patterns seen in the US and Japan during their respective long-term interest rate declines [5] Group 3 - Investment strategies focus on two main asset types benefiting from lower interest rates: technology stocks and dividend stocks, each responding differently to risk appetite influenced by US-China relations [6] - Technology stocks are expected to see long-term valuation re-pricing due to lower discount rates on future cash flows, supported by a 9.6% year-on-year increase in high-tech manufacturing value added [6] - Dividend stocks offer relative yield advantages in a low bond yield environment, making them a stable choice for asset allocation, with significant valuation recovery potential in the A-share market [6][7] Group 4 - Li Chao's investment strategy suggests prioritizing dividend stocks during heightened US-China tensions and shifting to technology stocks when risk appetite improves, providing a practical decision-making framework for investors [7] - The outlook for 2026 is based on a systematic analysis of economic fundamentals, policy logic, and market trends, emphasizing the importance of understanding the marginal changes in key variables [8] - The overall message encourages maintaining an optimistic view of the market while being mindful of the ongoing structural transformation towards high-quality development [8]