Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-28 08:18Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed significant gains on November 28, with lead futures performing strongly, closing up 1.09% at 17,090.00 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai market reported that Chihong Zn & Ge lead was priced between 17,000-17,060 CNY/ton, with a premium of 0-50 CNY/ton over the SHFE lead 2512 contract [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the domestic smelting sector is experiencing mixed changes, with unresolved issues regarding primary lead raw materials and a continued decline in treatment charges (TC) [1] - In Hebei, the supply of recycled lead is regionally tight, and the profitability of recycled lead smelting has weakened, leading to a decrease in operational willingness, with current recycled lead finished product inventories at historical lows [1] - Demand remains stable, with SMM reporting that the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery plants in Guangzhou is steady at 70.56%, and terminal demand in the lead market is showing stability, with battery plants purchasing on dips and a slight improvement in the spot trading atmosphere [1] Future Outlook - Southwest Futures indicates that the supply of lead concentrate is tight, and by-product revenues are supporting primary lead production. Strict regulations in northern regions are affecting the circulation of waste batteries, leading to slow growth in recycled lead output [1] - There is strong demand for energy storage batteries and a recovery in automotive battery replacement needs, although demand for electric bicycle batteries has shifted from strong to weak, with high dealer inventories [1] - Last week, social inventories of electrolytic lead increased by 2,800 tons, and the market is expected to experience fluctuations driven by supply disruptions and resilient demand, potentially leading to a wide-ranging oscillation pattern [1]