浙商证券李超：2026年“直观云帆济沧海”，牛市可期

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of high-quality development in China's economy for 2026, as articulated by Li Chao, the chief economist of Zheshang Securities [1] - Li Chao introduced a "Four-Level Analytical Framework" to understand China's economic policies and developments, emphasizing the need to consider multiple factors beyond mere economic growth [3] Group 1: Four-Level Analytical Framework - The first level focuses on the US-China rivalry, which is a primary consideration for decision-making [3] - The second level emphasizes social stability as the foundation for economic development [3] - The third level addresses structural transformation, which is the core path to high-quality development [3] - The fourth level pertains to maintaining reasonable economic growth under the previous three considerations [3] Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Li Chao expressed optimism for the capital market in 2026, suggesting that liquidity will drive a potential bull market [4] - Historical global trends indicate that even during economic downturns, stock markets can experience bullish trends due to liquidity easing, which boosts asset valuations [4] - Confidence in the market has been gradually improving since 2025, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026, indicating a forthcoming bull market [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The primary investment focus should be on sectors benefiting from declining interest rates, particularly technology and dividend stocks [5] - Technology stocks are expected to see increased valuations as investors become more willing to price long-term cash flows in a low-interest environment [5] - Dividend stocks will serve as attractive alternatives when bond yields are low, providing stability and value appreciation [5] - A clear investment strategy is to allocate to dividend stocks during US-China tensions and to technology stocks during cooperation, as the dynamics of US-China relations significantly influence market risk preferences [5]