KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-28 08:30Group 1: Market Performance - The market experienced a contraction with the consumption ETF (159928) rebounding from a low, closing in the green with a trading volume of nearly 400 million yuan [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) has attracted a total of 340 million yuan in the last 20 days, with its latest scale exceeding 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the consumption 50 ETF (159268) saw a slight decline of 0.61%, with a trading volume exceeding 37 million yuan, and has accumulated over 85 million yuan in the last 20 days [4] Group 2: Policy and Economic Outlook - On November 16, six ministries issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 [10] - The plan emphasizes the importance of meeting diverse consumer needs, particularly for different demographics such as children, students, and the elderly [11] - The plan also highlights the creation of new consumption scenarios and business formats, supported by a favorable development environment [11] Group 3: Alcohol Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has dropped to a new low, attributed to increased supply and a general decline in alcohol consumption [7] - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 revenue was 39.064 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.56%, marking the lowest net profit growth rate in nearly a decade [7] - Analysts predict that the liquor industry is in an adjustment phase but is gradually approaching a bottoming out, with expectations for a slight recovery in valuations as liquidity and policy expectations improve [8] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The consumption ETF (159928) is currently trading at a TTM P/E ratio of 20.01, which is at the 5.06% percentile of the past decade, indicating high valuation attractiveness [9] - The top ten constituent stocks of the consumption ETF account for over 68.3% of its weight, with significant representation from leading liquor companies and major agricultural firms [12]