浙商证券李超：A股欠大家一次牛市（全文）

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of a multi-layered decision-making framework for understanding China's economic landscape, emphasizing that economic growth is now the fourth priority in a four-tiered model [1][3][5]. Group 1: Four-Tier Decision Framework - The four tiers of the decision-making framework are: US-China relations (determining risk appetite), social stability (defining policy bottom line), structural transformation (guiding industry direction), and economic growth (setting bottom line speed) [3][5]. - Investors are cautioned against relying solely on GDP as a predictive model, as it has become ineffective [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The focus for 2026 will be on maintaining necessary economic growth during structural transformation, with exports being a key driver due to China's competitive advantage [3][5][6]. - The market is expected to experience a liquidity-driven bull market starting in 2026, following a three-year delay [3][7]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Two main categories benefiting from declining interest rates are technology and dividend stocks, which appeal to different risk appetites [3][7]. - The strategy for asset allocation should involve dynamic rebalancing between technology and dividend stocks based on the state of US-China relations [3][7].