11月人民币对美元即期汇率升值近0.48%

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan has strengthened against the US Dollar at the end of November, with significant appreciation observed throughout the month, driven by strong export performance and favorable market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - On November 28, the onshore Yuan to US Dollar exchange rate closed at 7.0794, an increase of 12 basis points from the previous trading day [1] - In November, the onshore Yuan appreciated nearly 0.48% against the US Dollar, with a peak of 7.0738 on November 27, marking a new high since mid-October of the previous year [1] - The central parity rate on the last trading day of November was reported at 7.0789, with a cumulative appreciation of 0.128% for the month [1] - For the first eleven months of the year, the central parity rate appreciated by 1.52%, while the onshore rate appreciated by over 3% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing the Yuan's Strength - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent strength of the Yuan is attributed to robust export performance, which has boosted market confidence, alongside a seasonal peak in foreign exchange settlements in the fourth quarter [1] - The continuous release of appreciation signals from the central parity rate has effectively guided market expectations [1] - The recent dovish stance from Federal Reserve officials has contributed to a marginal decline in the US Dollar index, further reinforcing the Yuan's appreciation trend [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities notes that despite the recent resilience of the Yuan amid a rebound in the US Dollar index, changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations will remain a key short-term factor influencing the Dollar index [2] - It is anticipated that the export growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, potentially weakening the current account support for the Yuan [2] - However, with ongoing policy support for investment and consumption, along with a balanced approach to exchange rate stabilization by the central bank, the Yuan is expected to gradually align with the central parity rate amidst fluctuations [2]