锚定“双碳”战略！铂钯期货上市引关注，机构称明年价格中枢或上移｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has launched platinum and palladium futures and options, marking a significant addition to its green energy metal offerings, which include industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon. These metals play a crucial role in clean energy transitions, from hydrogen catalysis to automotive emissions purification and photovoltaic manufacturing [2][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - On the first trading day, platinum futures (contract 2606) opened at 441 CNY/gram, up from a benchmark price of 405 CNY/gram, and closed with a gain of 6.25% after reaching a high of 457.15 CNY/gram [2][3]. - Palladium futures (contract 2606) opened at 377 CNY/gram, also above its benchmark price of 365 CNY/gram, and closed with a gain of 1.53% after peaking at 409.85 CNY/gram [3]. - The trading volume for platinum and palladium futures was significant, with platinum futures generating a transaction amount of 27.318 billion CNY and palladium futures 12.290 billion CNY on their first day [2]. Group 2: Industry Participation - There is a high willingness among entities to participate in the futures market, particularly among leading smelting companies and import-export traders who have prior experience with foreign platinum and palladium futures [4]. - However, there is a variance in participation levels among downstream industries due to differences in understanding and expertise, with initial participation being cautious among companies that rely on platinum and palladium for production [4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The launch of platinum and palladium futures fills a gap in domestic price risk management, as China is the largest consumer of these metals but has relied on foreign futures tools, exposing itself to exchange rate and price risks [5]. - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance the market system for new energy metals and support China's dual carbon strategy, as platinum and palladium are critical materials for automotive catalysts and hydrogen industries [5][6]. - The establishment of a RMB-denominated pricing system aims to enhance China's influence over global platinum and palladium pricing, as the country heavily depends on imports for these metals [6]. Group 4: Price Trends and Forecasts - Analysts predict that the market for platinum and palladium will remain in a tight supply-demand balance through 2026, with prices likely to rise further, particularly for platinum due to its superior demand structure [8][10]. - The average price for platinum is expected to reach between 1500 and 1700 USD/ounce, while palladium may see an average price range of 1350 to 1450 USD/ounce, indicating a potential divergence in their price movements [10].