天风证券刘晨明：A股盈利研判框架生变，海外因素与新兴产业成明年关键

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of corporate earnings fundamentals for the upcoming year, following a period of valuation increases in the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Analysis - A-share overall Return on Equity (ROE) has stabilized after 16 consecutive quarters of decline, marking three consecutive quarters of recovery [3]. - The share of overseas income for A-share companies has increased from approximately 10% a decade ago to 20% currently [3]. - The profitability of overseas operations has improved, with gross margins rising from 17%-18% a decade ago to 20%, while domestic business gross margins have decreased to 15% [3]. Group 2: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The proportion of traditional industries in profit structure has decreased from 70%-80% ten years ago to about 50%-60% [3]. - The adjustment in the profit analysis framework necessitates a greater focus on overseas operations and emerging industries [4]. - Factors such as slowing domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, overseas fiscal expansion, low inventory replenishment cycles, and the U.S. political cycle are expected to support continued stabilization of A-share ROE in the coming year [4].