供需反转？“锂业双雄”定调、乐观情绪高涨，投机资金却已撤离

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector in A-shares is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures and optimistic expectations for industry demand and supply balance by 2026 [1][2][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2605 and LC2601 have rebounded to approximately 97,000 CNY/ton and 95,000 CNY/ton, respectively, following a period of price decline [1]. - The average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased from a low of 60,000 CNY/ton in late June to a new high in mid-November, driven by factors such as production halts and surging demand from energy storage [2][4]. - The trading volume and speculative activity in the futures market have intensified, with the turnover ratio rising from 1.4 to over 2.2, indicating increased market engagement [6][11]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 suggest a global lithium supply increase to 2.03 million tons LCE, while demand may reach 2.14 million tons LCE, resulting in an 110,000-ton supply gap [2][16][19]. - Major industry players, including Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, express optimism about achieving supply-demand balance by 2026, with potential price surges if demand growth exceeds expectations [14][19]. - The lithium supply chain is expected to remain resilient, with no significant closures or permanent shutdowns of mines anticipated, contributing to a stable supply outlook [13][14]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Reactions - The futures market has seen regulatory adjustments, including increased transaction fees and margin requirements, aimed at cooling speculative trading [4][7][8]. - Following these regulatory changes, speculative funds have begun to withdraw, leading to a temporary cooling in the lithium carbonate futures market [8][10]. - Despite the withdrawal of speculative funds, trend-based investments remain high, indicating continued confidence in the long-term outlook for lithium prices [11][12]. Group 4: Short-term Variables - The ongoing production of energy storage batteries and the potential resumption of operations at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine are critical factors that could influence short-term supply and pricing dynamics [21][24][28]. - Current market sentiment is cautious, with downstream buyers primarily focusing on essential inventory replenishment rather than aggressive purchasing [26][29].