广发基金投顾团队：全球科技股迎来多空之争，未来是走是留？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuating performance of global tech stock indices, particularly those related to AI technology, which have shown similar patterns across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks since October [1] - The recent volatility in tech stocks is attributed to two main factors: changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and ongoing debates about the potential bubble in AI giants [1][2] - The financial aspect indicates a strong correlation between tech stock performance and shifts in interest rate expectations, with an 84.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, up from 69.4% the previous week [1] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the valuations of U.S. AI tech giants are considered relatively high after a prolonged increase, raising concerns about potential bubble tendencies [2] - Comparisons are made between the current market and the 2000 internet bubble, noting that current AI leaders have more substantial revenue growth and a stronger economic impact, with tech contributing approximately 59% to the overall growth in the U.S. economy by mid-2025 [2] - Investment sentiment has not yet reached the peak levels seen during the internet bubble, with the dynamic P/E ratio of the "Magnificent Seven" around 30 times, significantly lower than the peak of over 60 times during the internet bubble [2] Group 3 - The analysis concludes that it may be premature to declare a bubble in U.S. AI tech stocks, although the market might be entering a "halftime" phase, suggesting potential shifts in leadership among companies [3] - While U.S. tech giants drive the industry wave, other markets may not diverge significantly in trends, but they are influenced by various macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors [3] - For investors concerned about tech stock volatility, diversification of asset allocation is recommended to mitigate portfolio fluctuations and enhance the investment experience [3]