电车赢了油车，电池赢了石油，都是中国赢了

Core Insights - The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in China is significantly reshaping the country's oil consumption patterns, with a notable decline in oil demand projected for 2024, marking the first decrease in two decades [1][5][20] - The strategic shift towards EVs not only reduces reliance on oil but also aligns with broader goals of enhancing energy security and technological self-sufficiency [5][8][20] Electric Vehicle Adoption - In 2024, electric vehicles accounted for 25% of new car sales in China, with a total of 3,143.6 million vehicles sold, representing a 4.5% year-on-year increase [10][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 40.9%, with battery electric vehicles making up 60% of new energy vehicle sales [10][11] Oil Consumption Trends - From 2005 to 2024, China's oil consumption more than doubled, becoming the largest crude oil importer and contributing to over half of the global oil demand growth [3][5] - In 2024, a structural change in oil consumption is expected, driven by the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles, leading to a projected reduction of approximately 430,000 barrels per day in gasoline consumption [2][16][20] Long-term Projections - If the transition to electric vehicles accelerates, the reduction in gasoline consumption could double by 2040, potentially reaching 860,000 barrels per day [2][20] - The research indicates that by 2040, the annual savings in gasoline consumption could contribute to a significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, estimated at around 267 million tons, which is about 2.3% of China's total emissions in 2023 [20] Strategic Implications - The shift towards electric vehicles is a cornerstone of China's geopolitical and economic strategy, influencing global value chains and competitive dynamics in the automotive industry [8][20] - The findings underscore the importance of strong EV adoption in reshaping China's oil consumption model and achieving substantial emissions reductions, with implications extending beyond China's borders [20]