俄乌协议重创油市？巴克莱：实质性影响存疑，布油明年仍看66美元

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market is rapidly declining as expectations for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine rise, with Brent crude oil prices falling to around $63 per barrel. Barclays maintains its forecast for the average Brent crude price at $66 per barrel for 2026, emphasizing that structural factors like capacity constraints will be more significant than geopolitical events in the coming years [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - Despite the emergence of ceasefire negotiations, Barclays believes such events will not significantly alter the fundamental landscape of the oil market by 2026 [1]. - The report highlights that concerns over oversupply in the market are overstated, while structural positive factors are underestimated [1][7]. - The actual production of OPEC+ countries, including Russia, continues to lag behind targets, indicating persistent capacity constraints [7][10]. Group 2: Russian Oil Production Constraints - Barclays questions the market consensus that a ceasefire would lead to a surge in Russian oil supply, asserting that significant growth in Russian production is unlikely before 2026 [4]. - Despite an increase in OPEC+ production quotas, Russia's actual output has declined by 100,000 barrels per day year-on-year, reflecting a disconnect between capacity and policy goals [4]. - The ongoing sanctions have stabilized, yet production has not increased, indicating that capacity constraints have become the primary bottleneck for supply [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - The market's fears of oversupply in the coming year may be overestimated, as investors are underappreciating the structural constraints on supply from OPEC+ and the shrinking global excess capacity [7][10]. - Since March, OPEC+ has raised production targets by 2.6 million barrels per day, but actual output has only increased by 1.2 million barrels per day, with an execution rate of less than 50% [7]. - The effective idle capacity is increasingly concentrated among a few core OPEC producers, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, enhancing their pricing power in the global market [7][10].