美联储的AI困局：学格林斯潘是“死路”，不降息是“绝路”

Core Insights - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where lowering interest rates could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering rates could push the market into a crisis [1][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights that AI could either lead to a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or push up the equilibrium interest rate (r*), resulting in contrasting monetary policy paths [1][4] - Lowering interest rates based on the expectation of AI enhancing productivity is deemed a "dead end," as the current inflation environment is less favorable than in the 1990s [1][3] - Not lowering rates could lead to a scenario where inflation resurfaces in 2026, forcing the Federal Reserve to adopt tightening policies, which could inadvertently burst market bubbles [1][4] Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - The report discusses Alan Greenspan's strategy of "cleaning up rather than intervening," suggesting that future Federal Reserve chairs may follow this approach, especially those appointed by pro-technology leaders [2][12] - Greenspan's legacy is complex, as he initially delayed rate hikes in the 1990s due to underestimating productivity growth, but later raised rates to prevent excessive monetary policy [3][4] - The historical context indicates that simply advocating for rate cuts based on past experiences with Greenspan overlooks the nuanced challenges faced by the Federal Reserve during technological revolutions [4][12] Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - Three critical questions will shape the Federal Reserve's policy path: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector are inflationary [6] 2. If AI can deliver productivity gains similar to those seen in the 1990s [10] 3. Who benefits from productivity improvements, with historical trends suggesting workers may gain more than corporations [11] Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - AI could act as a powerful deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [7] - Conversely, the surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may elevate the equilibrium interest rate, as higher expected returns on capital encourage significant investments [7][10] - The report notes that the potential for AI to replicate the productivity growth of the 1990s is uncertain, with estimates of AI's contribution to productivity varying widely among experts [10][11] Group 5: Future Considerations - The Federal Reserve's traditional approach of not actively bursting asset bubbles may lead to unintended consequences if inflation becomes a primary concern again [12] - The current inflation dynamics are less favorable than those in the 1990s, which could complicate attempts to replicate Greenspan's policies without risking a tech bubble [12]