Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-11-28 13:21Market Overview - The US dollar index has experienced a decline, dropping below the 100 mark due to weaker-than-expected retail data and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, marking its worst weekly performance since July, currently at 99.70 [1] - US Treasury yields have generally decreased, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4%, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets driven by interest rate outlooks [1] - Spot gold prices surged early in the week, rising nearly $100, and maintained high levels despite fluctuations, while silver showed stronger gains [1] - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar all appreciating due to the dollar's weakness [1] - International crude oil prices fluctuated, initially pressured by positive signs from Russia-Ukraine peace talks but rebounding later in the week amid increased uncertainty [1] Stock Market Insights - US stocks showed overall strength, led by the technology sector, driven by enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - Nvidia faced significant pressure in the AI sector, while Alphabet, Google's parent company, reached new highs [2] CME Technical Issues - CME experienced a nine-hour outage due to a cooling system failure, affecting trading in various futures and options contracts, with implications for contracts worth trillions of dollars [5] - The outage severely impacted US Treasury futures trading, leading to sparse cash bond trading and a lack of hedging options for traders [5] - Gold futures and options trading on Comex was also disrupted, causing price dislocation with London spot prices [5] Investment Bank Perspectives - JPMorgan economists have adjusted their rate predictions, now expecting the Federal Reserve to continue rate cuts in December rather than waiting until January [7] - UBS analysts noted the potential for a delay in the Fed's meeting due to data considerations [7] - Several Wall Street institutions have forecasted the S&P 500 index for 2026, with Deutsche Bank predicting 8000 points, HSBC at 7500 points, and Morgan Stanley at 7800 points, driven by the ongoing AI boom [7] - Emerging markets are expected to rise in 2026, supported by a weak dollar and AI investment trends, with Morgan Stanley recommending long positions in emerging market local currency bonds [7] Major Events Summary - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance has led to a consensus around a potential rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction rising to approximately 87% [8] - The new "19-point" peace plan between the US and Ukraine has been introduced, replacing the previous "28-point" plan, with key negotiations still pending [11] - The UK government announced a budget plan expected to generate an additional £26 billion in tax revenue by 2029/30, primarily through various tax adjustments [13][14] - Trump's "Genesis Project" aims to consolidate AI resources across federal and private sectors, likened to a modern "Manhattan Project" [16] - Nvidia's market position is under threat as Meta shifts to Google's TPU chips, reflecting competitive pressures in the AI hardware space [17][18]