铜供应链迎来“史上最紧张”时刻：矿端、冶炼厂激烈博弈，金属溢价飙至纪录！

Core Insights - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, with miners pressuring smelters for record-low processing fees while refined copper premiums to China have surged to historic highs [1][2] - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are indicative of a significant supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by uncertainties related to trade policies [1][2] - The situation is leading to a potential shift in global copper supply dynamics, with U.S. demand expected to attract a substantial amount of refined copper, creating a mismatch in global supply [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Miners currently hold the upper hand in negotiations due to years of overexpansion in smelting capacity and unexpected supply disruptions this year [2] - The ongoing negotiations have led to a stalemate, with some participants potentially withdrawing from the established pricing system, complicating supply planning for the year [2] - The Chinese metal industry association has expressed strong opposition to the unsustainable negative processing fees, reflecting the pressure on miners from overcapacity issues [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Influence - The expectation of significant refined copper inflows to the U.S. is driven by high prices resulting from ongoing import tariff expectations [3] - By the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. is projected to hold 90% of the global copper inventory, indicating a drastic shift in market dynamics [3] - As the U.S. absorbs more copper cathodes, other markets will face increasing shortages, with suppliers like Chile's Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to Chinese customers [4] Group 3: Future Implications - The changing flow of refined copper is reshaping the global supply landscape, with rising premiums reflecting heightened regional supply tensions [4] - The intensity of this demand shift should not be underestimated, as it poses significant scarcity risks for copper markets outside the U.S. in the coming months [4]