Why Nutanix's 18% Decline Shouldn't Surprise Investors

Core Viewpoint - Nutanix's stock fell over 18% after reporting earnings that were below analyst expectations and providing a weak forward outlook, indicating a pre-existing structural decline that was anticipated [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Analysis - Nutanix completed its Cakra formation and broke out in Phase 9, leading to a significant ascent, with a peak around $83.36 before entering a descent phase [2][4]. - The stock has since declined approximately 43% from its peak, which is considered normal for a descent leg in its current cycle [2]. - The current selling pressure aligns with the structural expectation that the stock will revisit the Cakra breakout level of around $31 [6]. Group 2: Future Projections - Nutanix is currently in Phase 12, with expectations that Phases 12 and 13 will focus on completing the descent, followed by a consolidation phase [7]. - Clarity regarding future performance will emerge when Phase 14 begins, which will determine the potential for a strong rally in Phase 18, referred to as Nirvana [7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - In July, most institutional ratings on Nutanix were bullish, but a cautious analysis highlighted structural risks and advised restraint [10]. - The descent is not complete until the stock approaches the ~$31 region, suggesting that new long positions are premature at this stage [11].