铜供应“史上最紧张”！金属溢价飙至纪录，伦铜创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, driven by fierce negotiations between miners and smelters, tariff expectations from the U.S., and record metal premiums, leading to copper prices reaching new highs [1]. Group 1: Copper Price Surge - As of October 28, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to approximately $11,210 per ton, marking a historical intraday high with a daily increase of 2.5% [1]. - If the closing price maintains a rise of around 2.2%, it is expected to set a new closing record, surpassing the previous high from a month ago [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Tensions - The copper supply chain is under extreme pressure, with miners pushing for record low processing fees during intense negotiations with smelters at an industry conference in Shanghai [1][3]. - The annual premium for refined copper shipped to China has reached a historical high, reflecting the tight supply situation [1]. Group 3: Global Impact of Negotiations - The negotiations between miners and smelters are unusually intense, with German smelting company Aurubis AG's executives expressing readiness to reject excessively low annual processing fee benchmarks [2][3]. - The ongoing conflict over processing fees has led to a stalemate, with some participants potentially withdrawing from the established pricing system [3]. Group 4: U.S. Market Dynamics - There is an expectation that a significant amount of refined copper will flow to the U.S., with projections indicating that by Q1 2026, the U.S. could hold 90% of the global copper inventory [4]. - Codelco, the largest copper producer, has offered record premiums of $350 per ton to certain Chinese customers, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89, indicating a shift in supply dynamics [4]. Group 5: Currency Influence - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, is providing additional support for copper prices [6]. - A declining dollar reduces procurement costs for overseas buyers, further bolstering metal prices amid supply disruptions and policy-driven buying [6].