三大因素或支持黄金明年继续“闪耀”

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a strong bull run in 2023, with international gold prices increasing by 58.41% year-to-date, reaching a high of $4,100 per ounce as of November 27 [1] Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net purchase of 39 tons in September, a 79% increase from August, marking the highest monthly net purchase in 2025 [1] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [1] - Gold is becoming a preferred asset for central banks' diversified reserves, indicating long-term demand [1] Group 2: Economic Influences on Gold Prices - The deepening interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is expected to enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, with market expectations of approximately two rate cuts in 2026 [2] - The decrease in interest rates lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby increasing its attractiveness [2] Group 3: Geopolitical and Credit Risks - Heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing trade friction are driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The increasing scale of U.S. debt and concerns over dollar credit risk contribute to a long-term trend of "de-dollarization," further supporting gold prices [2]