UBS (UBS) Up 0.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group reported a significant increase in net profit and revenues for Q3 2025, driven by strong performances across its divisions, although a decline in total assets raised concerns [2][3]. Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was $2.48 billion, up from $1.43 billion in the prior-year quarter [2]. - Total revenues increased by 3.5% year over year to $12.76 billion, while operating expenses decreased by 4.4% to $9.83 billion [3]. - Total credit loss expenses were reported at $102 million, a decline of 15.7% from the previous year [3]. Business Divisions' Performance - Global Wealth Management's operating profit before tax rose to $1.35 billion from $1.09 billion year over year [4]. - Asset Management's operating profit before tax increased by 44.4% to $218 million [4]. - Personal & Corporate Banking reported a decrease in operating profit before tax to $631 million, down 25.4% year over year [4]. - The Investment Bank unit's operating profit before tax increased to $900 million from $405 million in the prior-year quarter [4]. Capital Position - Total assets fell by 2.3% from the previous quarter to $1.63 trillion [6]. - Return on Common Equity Tier 1 capital improved to 13.5% as of September 30, 2025, compared to 7.6% a year earlier [6]. - Risk-weighted assets declined by 2.7% year over year to $504.9 billion [6]. - CET1 capital rose marginally to $74.7 billion, while invested assets increased by 11.5% year over year to $6.9 trillion [6]. Outlook - Management expects the Underlying Ro CET1 exit rate for 2026 to be around 15–16%, an increase from the previous expectation of 15% [7]. - The underlying cost-to-income ratio for 2026 is anticipated to be less than 70%, with gross cost savings projected at around $13 billion by the end of 2026 [8]. - The Global Wealth Management business is expected to exceed $5 trillion in invested assets by 2028, with approximately $100 billion in net new assets in 2025 [9]. Estimate Trends - Recent estimates for UBS have shown a downward trend, with the consensus estimate shifting by -39.22% [11]. - UBS currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [13].