人民币国际化迎黄金机遇？专家警告：重蹈亚洲危机覆辙，改革滞后比不开放更险

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is at a critical juncture, with significant opportunities arising, but experts warn that without accompanying reforms, rapid opening could lead to severe consequences [1][10][22] Group 1: Current Status of RMB Internationalization - As of the end of this year, the RMB has become the fourth largest payment currency globally, with a 3.79% share in global payments [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of RMB internationalization and the enhancement of capital account openness [10] Group 2: Historical Lessons - The Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s serves as a cautionary tale, where rapid capital account opening without internal reforms led to severe economic turmoil in countries like Thailand and Indonesia [4][6] - Key statistics from the crisis include a 74% depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah and a 43% depreciation of the Thai Baht within months, highlighting the risks of unprepared financial liberalization [4] Group 3: Necessary Reforms for RMB Internationalization - Six essential reforms are identified for successful RMB internationalization: strengthening the domestic circulation system, enhancing technological innovation, improving property rights protection, increasing macro governance efficiency, refining corporate governance, and solidifying capital market functions [13][15][17] - The domestic market must be robust enough to support internationalization efforts; otherwise, opening up could be ineffective [15] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Recommendations include expanding the use of RMB in pricing and settlement of commodities, particularly in strategic sectors like rare earths and high-end manufacturing [18] - Enhancing the cross-border payment environment and reducing reliance on SWIFT and CHIPS through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is crucial for mitigating potential sanctions [20] - Increasing gold reserves to bolster the international credibility of the RMB is also suggested, aiming for reserves to reach at least half of the U.S. gold reserves [20] Group 5: Conclusion - The industry consensus emphasizes a cautious approach to RMB internationalization, advocating for steady progress while ensuring regulatory capabilities and risk management are in place [22] - The path to RMB internationalization should prioritize stability over speed, ensuring that internal capabilities are solid before pursuing aggressive internationalization strategies [22]