Ge Long Hui·2025-11-28 19:58Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Li Auto's Q3 2025 revenue and profit fell short of expectations due to recall costs, with total revenue declining by 36.2% year-on-year and 9.5% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The automotive gross margin was reported at 15.5%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, which was below market expectations; excluding the Li MEGA recall impact, the gross margin would have been 19.8% [1] - The average selling price per vehicle increased by 6.7% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to reduced promotional efforts for the L series models and improved product mix, although the decline in sales volume negatively impacted overall revenue [1] Group 2 - For Q4 2025, the company guided vehicle deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, corresponding to revenue of 26.5 billion to 29.2 billion yuan, with a projected sales increase of 7.3% to 18.0% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Despite strong market demand for new electric models i6 and i8, with cumulative orders exceeding 100,000 units, short-term deliveries are constrained by supply chain bottlenecks for key components like batteries [2] - Management expects supply shortages to gradually ease after implementing a dual-supplier model in November, with production capacity anticipated to rise to an average of 20,000 units per month by early next year [2] Group 3 - The company maintains a neutral rating, suggesting that the current stock price reflects most negative factors, with recovery dependent on the resolution of Q4 supply chain issues and actual sales realization from i6/i8 production ramp-up [3] - The management emphasized strategic investments in AI and embodied intelligence during a recent conference call, indicating potential positive impacts on stock price if tangible products emerge next year [3] - The stock price has corrected approximately 40% from previous highs, and the current valuation is believed to account for most of the negative factors [3]