中国经济持续回升向好 增长动能逐步优化

Economic Growth - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5.0% [1] - The strong performance of external demand effectively offset the temporary shortfall in domestic demand, with contributions to GDP from final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, and net exports at 53.5%, 17.5%, and 29% respectively [1] Consumer Market - The consumer market is expected to continue its moderate recovery, driven by the "trade-in" policy which significantly boosted retail sales of automobiles, home appliances, and furniture [2] - Retail sales of durable goods are showing strong recovery, with signs of improvement in service consumption such as dining [2] Manufacturing Sector - China's manufacturing value added accounts for 26.2% of GDP, highlighting its status as a manufacturing powerhouse [2] - Technological advancements in AI, big data, and biomanufacturing are accelerating the development of the digital economy and smart manufacturing, which will enhance overall productivity in the manufacturing sector [2] Real Estate Market - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are accelerating the inventory reduction process, with the area of unsold commercial housing decreasing from 800 million square meters in February 2025 to 760 million square meters by the end of September [3] - The reduction in mortgage rates and down payment ratios is expected to further stimulate demand in the real estate sector [3] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is expected to improve marginally due to ongoing debt reduction efforts and the introduction of new policy financial tools [3] - Fiscal support for infrastructure remains strong, providing incremental investment power [3] Export Performance - China's export growth rate reached 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by the expansion into emerging markets and the advantages of its industrial chain [4] - The diversification of markets, particularly in Europe, ASEAN, and Latin America, has mitigated risks from reliance on a single market [4] Future Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery, with growth momentum gradually optimizing due to proactive policies, technological empowerment in manufacturing, and the release of consumer market potential [4] - The combination of precise macro policies and deep structural reforms is anticipated to lead to qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [4]