外汇商品 | 以可控有序升值收关——2025年12月人民币走势前瞻及衍生品策略

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB exchange rate, highlighting its strength against other currencies and the implications of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the currency market [1]. Market Review - In November, the US Dollar Index reached above 100 twice due to falling expectations for a December Fed rate cut, concerns over dollar liquidity, and the impact of Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets on Asian currencies [1]. - By the end of November, the Fed's guidance raised expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the Dollar Index and a recovery in risk appetite [1]. - The RMB showed strong performance among non-USD currencies, with both the closing price and the midpoint rate surpassing 7.08 at the end of the month [1]. Market Outlook - Spot Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to continue its appreciation trend from late November into December, with potential opportunities arising from fluctuations in the USD/RMB exchange rate and adjustments in A-shares and external risk sentiment [1]. - Derivatives: A Fed rate cut in December is anticipated to provide upward momentum for swaps [1]. Strategy Recommendations - Starting from August 2025, foreign exchange options trading volume is projected to exceed that of swaps, becoming the largest derivative product by client transaction volume [1]. - The volatility of options (option premiums) has reached a ten-year low, presenting an excellent opportunity for enterprises that have not previously engaged with options products to explore [1].