11月28日金价：大家要有心理准备了，下周金价或将重现15年历史

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in gold prices and the associated risks for consumers and investors, emphasizing that many are purchasing gold incorrectly, leading to a high pitfall rate exceeding 90% [1][3] - As of November 28, 2025, gold prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange surpassed 942 yuan per gram, with retail prices for gold jewelry reaching 1312-1318 yuan per gram, mirroring the market conditions of 2010 [2][8] - Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous occurrences of geopolitical tensions, central bank gold accumulation, and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve often lead to long-term bullish trends in gold prices [2][9] Group 2 - The current market shows a stark contrast between investment and consumption, with gold bar sales increasing significantly, particularly in major cities, while gold jewelry consumption has declined sharply [5][6] - Retail sales for companies like Chow Tai Fook have dropped by 18.6% year-on-year in Q2, and the wholesale volume of gold jewelry in Shenzhen has decreased by 15%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards lighter products and cost-saving strategies [6][8] - The central banks' actions are pivotal, with a collective increase in gold purchases leading to a historical record of 1089 tons in 2024, marking a shift in the gold pricing model from dollar-based to central bank-driven [9][12] Group 3 - The article discusses the changing dynamics of gold pricing, where the traditional model based on the US dollar's real interest rates has been replaced by a new model dominated by central bank demand, which now constitutes 23% of total gold demand [12] - The decline in the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves from 55.25% to 46.74% between 2010 and 2024, alongside an increase in gold's share from 11.24% to 19.13%, reflects a shift in the perception of gold as a hedge against dollar credit risks [12][10] - Consumers are advised to prioritize purchasing gold in a way that minimizes costs, such as opting for gold priced by weight rather than fixed-price jewelry, and to be cautious of high premiums associated with branded products [14][17]