CME Group(US:CME) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-29 01:35Core Viewpoint - Silver and copper prices surged to historical highs driven by strong fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by a rare technical failure at the CME Group that intensified market volatility [1][10]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices rose by 5.9% to $56.53 per ounce, setting a new record, while supply concerns intensified due to a significant shortage in the market [2][4]. - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics, has provided a solid foundation for price increases, despite a recent influx of 54 million ounces easing some supply pressure [5][6]. - Concerns over potential tariffs on silver, following its inclusion in the US Geological Survey's critical minerals list, have led to hesitance among traders regarding exporting the metal [6]. Group 2: Copper Market Sentiment - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,210.50 per ton, following discussions among miners, smelters, and traders at a Shanghai conference that highlighted tightening market conditions [2][7]. - The energy trading firm Mercuria's metal chief expressed bullish predictions, warning that increased shipments to the US could deplete global copper inventories [8]. - The price surge was also a response to optimistic sentiments from the CESCO Shanghai conference, contributing to a broader bullish narrative for the year-end [9]. Group 3: Macro Economic Influences - The anticipated monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has been a significant driver for metal prices, with an 86.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut expected at the December 10 meeting [10]. - The broader surge in metal prices this year reflects a trend known as "inflation trade," with silver prices increasing over 90% as investors shift from government bonds and currencies to alternative assets [12].