Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-29 02:06Core Insights - The Chinese enterprise AI market is undergoing a structural shift from "model experimentation" to "cloud-based implementation," with Alibaba positioned as a potential "biggest winner" in this transition [1] - A recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey indicates a growing preference for large-scale cloud providers over independent AI model developers, reflecting a shift in enterprise client selection logic [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - 47% of CIOs now prefer hyperscalers for deploying large models, a 10 percentage point increase from the first half of 2025, while interest in independent AI model developers has decreased by 7 percentage points to 40% [2] - 40% of CIOs plan to deploy Generative AI via public cloud in the next 12 months, significantly up from 28% six months ago, indicating strong demand for cloud infrastructure [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Interest in DeepSeek has dropped by 20 percentage points to 45%, while Alibaba's Qwen has surged from 18% to 30%, indicating a rapid shift in B-end market dominance [6] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Alibaba/Qwen could capture 37% market share in three years, surpassing DeepSeek (28%), Huawei (13%), and ByteDance (12%) [6] Group 3: Financial Projections - Alibaba Cloud currently holds a 35.8% market share, exceeding the combined share of its second to fourth competitors [8] - Revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud is expected to accelerate to over 35% in the second half of fiscal year 2026 and further to 40% in fiscal year 2027 [9] - Despite a planned capital expenditure of 380 billion RMB over three years, the exponential demand for computing power may render this investment insufficient [9]