【UNFX本周总结】降息时间表被重新定价 就业隐忧成为资产分化的推力源头

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December has risen to approximately 82.8%-87%, marking one of the strongest bets for a rate cut in this cycle [2] - The dovish stance of potential Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Hassett has further reinforced market pricing for future rate cuts, putting pressure on the US dollar [2][8] Group 2: Currency Market - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend, expected to record its weakest weekly performance since July [3] - The euro reached a one-and-a-half-week high against the dollar, while the dollar weakened slightly against the yen [3] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices remained strong, reaching up to $4,180, supported by interest rate expectations, increased safe-haven demand, and ongoing central bank purchases [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could exceed $4,900 per ounce by 2026, while UBS has raised its target to $4,500 per ounce [4] Group 4: Stock Market - Despite rising signals of layoffs and increasing pressures on the real economy, the US stock market remains resilient [5] - Several investment banks have raised their 2026 S&P 500 index targets to a range of 7,500-8,000 [5] Group 5: Employment and Layoff Signals - The number of corporate layoff announcements and WARN submissions tracked by Goldman Sachs continues to rise, contrasting with official initial jobless claims data [9] - If signals from the private sector translate into official data, it could significantly impact market perceptions of policy windows and economic outlook [9] Group 6: Market Dynamics - The market logic for the week can be summarized as "weak dollar + strong gold + resilient US stocks + pressured employment outlook" [10] - Structural differentiation remains a core focus for investors in the coming weeks, with asset performance driven by easing expectations and technology earnings [10]