专家：未来6年，房价将上涨85%，你信吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in Hong Kong property prices is notable, with predictions suggesting a potential increase of 41.85% over the next three years and a cumulative rise of 85% over six years [2][20]. Group 1: Hong Kong Property Market Performance - The Hong Kong property price index has shown a recovery after three years of decline, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 1.14% and a monthly increase of 1.32% in September, marking the largest monthly rise in 18 months [2][6]. - The transaction volume for new residential properties has been robust, with over 1,500 transactions per month from February to October, peaking at 2,031 transactions in October, the highest in 21 years [4]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Market Recovery - Four main factors are driving the rapid recovery of the Hong Kong property market: 1. Swift policy actions, including the removal of stamp duties and easing of purchase restrictions for non-residents [6][8]. 2. A favorable interest rate environment, with mortgage rates decreasing alongside U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, easing repayment burdens for buyers [6][8]. 3. An influx of talent, with over 340,000 talent applications approved in the first seven months of the year, significantly boosting housing demand [8][10]. 4. A solid economic recovery in Hong Kong, providing a strong foundation for the property market [8][10]. Group 3: Comparison with Mainland China Property Market - In contrast, the mainland Chinese property market is expected to continue its downturn until at least 2027, with ongoing discussions about new stimulus policies, including fiscal interest subsidies and tax reductions [12][14]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating the mainland property market has diminished, with banks cautious about interest rate cuts due to low net interest margins [14][16]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy as a Potential Solution - With monetary policy tools becoming less effective, fiscal measures are seen as a viable option, such as providing interest subsidies for new home purchases and increasing tax deductions [16][18]. - Other potential fiscal strategies include tax rebates for homebuyers and reductions in transaction fees, although some measures may face implementation challenges [18][20].