邓正红能源软实力：供应过剩背景下的地缘局势缓和 市场基本面盘整仍偏向下行

Core Insights - The oil market is currently experiencing a transition from traditional supply-demand competition to a phase dominated by soft power competition, influenced by geopolitical factors and market expectations [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - WTI crude oil prices fell below $59 per barrel on November 28, marking the longest monthly decline since March 2023, with a total of four consecutive months of decline [1][2] - The price drop reflects concerns over supply surplus and weak demand expectations, as well as the impact of geopolitical developments [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The potential easing of tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, following discussions between President Trump and Venezuelan leader Maduro, could significantly reduce the risk premium on oil [1][2] - Signs of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also contributing to a decrease in energy transportation risks in the Black Sea region [1][4] Group 3: OPEC's Strategic Decisions - OPEC has decided to pause its planned production increase originally set for the first quarter of 2026, signaling a controlled supply approach to manage market expectations [2][4] - The upcoming OPEC meeting will focus on long-term assessments of member countries' production capacities, reflecting the alliance's challenges in coordination [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The current oil price decline is attributed to the failure of rule reconstruction and expectation management, exacerbated by rising U.S. oil inventories and production [3] - The shift in OPEC's strategy from production control to rule-making faces challenges such as weakened pricing power and lack of technical standards [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term trends indicate that oil prices may continue to decline, necessitating close monitoring of macro supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical signals [5] - In the long term, OPEC must enhance its rule-making and value innovation capabilities to address energy transition challenges and improve alliance resilience [5]