日本12月会加息吗？市场紧盯下周一日央行行长讲话

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely watching the speech of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1, as expectations for a rate hike in December have surged to over 50% from less than 20% the previous week, driven by concerns over the negative effects of maintaining ultra-low real interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market's pricing for a December rate hike has dramatically shifted, with the USD/JPY trading relatively stable around 156.50, contrasting with previous attempts to break through 158 [2]. - Key factors driving this shift include a collective hawkish stance from Bank of Japan officials, media reports signaling the need for a rate hike due to persistent yen weakness, and increased tolerance from the government regarding a weaker yen [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The low real interest rates in Japan are seen as potentially harmful to the economy, with current rates being the lowest among major developed economies and significantly below the Bank of Japan's estimated natural rate [4]. - Japanese companies are showing a stronger willingness to pass rising input costs onto final prices, indicating a shift in cost transmission dynamics compared to previous deflationary periods [5][6]. Group 3: Upcoming Speech Insights - Two key points are anticipated from Governor Ueda's upcoming speech: the latest assessment of spring wage negotiations and the outlook on core inflation in Japan [7][8]. - Positive comments on wage negotiations could signal a potential rate hike in December, while an upward adjustment in the assessment of core inflation could be interpreted as a hawkish signal by the market [8].