特朗普阴影笼罩美联储！下一任主席已定，降息沦为政治工具？

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to 84.9%, reflecting unprecedented internal divisions and political influences within the Fed [1][22]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Initially, market expectations for a December rate cut were low, with the probability dropping to 49.4% in mid-November due to government shutdowns delaying economic data and positive job reports [3]. - By late November, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rose dramatically to 80.7%, driven by dovish signals from key Fed officials [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Key Fed officials, including New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Waller, have expressed concerns about the labor market, advocating for a rate cut [7]. - Conversely, some officials, like Boston Fed President Collins, argue for maintaining rates due to persistent inflation, highlighting the internal conflict within the Fed [9]. Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The Fed faces complex decision-making due to conflicting economic signals, such as rising unemployment (4.4% in September) and persistent inflation (CPI up 3.0%) [11]. - The cancellation of the October employment report and the delay of the November report until after the December FOMC meeting adds to the uncertainty [13]. Group 4: Political Influences - The selection of the next Fed Chair, influenced by political loyalty to Trump, significantly impacts market expectations, with potential candidates advocating for immediate rate cuts [16][18]. - Trump's policies, including tariff adjustments, have also affected inflation dynamics, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [18]. Group 5: Dollar Stability - Despite fluctuating rate cut expectations, the dollar index has remained stable, trading between 99 and 100.3 since October, as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach [20]. - The relative hawkish stance of the Fed compared to other central banks supports the dollar's stability, regardless of the December rate cut decision [22].